hey, just letting you know, i just did the math...

did you know...

the probability of your opponent drawing a nobleman in his or her opening hand is...

(2C1 x 38C5) + (2C2 x 38C4) / (40C6) = .2807

thats a 28% chance that in the first 6 cards, you get a nobleman.

what does that mean?

A- ill admit, unless you REALLY like big shields, getting an opening play where you draw a shield and your opponent gets a nobleman is going to be rather rare. (8% chance) so its worth it- but not at the same time.
B- you can feel free NOT to be TOO afraid of running multiple flip effect monsters. you should be able to establish a slow tempo QUITE easily, if your opponent isnt running toolbox warriors- featuring Mystic LV2.


SO- flip effect away. they are even stronger right now than you though. foo.

Hey, could you explain this formula please?

uh... its really hard, lol. but ill try.

the first pair of brackets is the number of hands you can draw containing EXACTLY 1 nobelman in your second hand. (2C1 x 38C5) the second is the number of hands you can draw with exactly TWO noblemans in your hand. (2C2 x 38C4) add those two probabilities together, and divide by the number of total hands you can get. (40C6)
the numbers are VERY large. there are 3,838,380 different 6 card opening hands you can get from a 40 card deck. lol.

Yeah, I see what you're saying, Ronin: "Don't be too afraid that your flips will be Noblemanned, because there isn't a very good chance that they will draw a NoC."

well- i mean that you should be able to contruct a deck based on slowing the tempo. i mean... if you are running mystic tomatos and apprentice magicians, you only have a .3 chance of NOT opening the game with a distict advantage. lol.

wtf how did you know that i thought you wanted to be an english teacher or something not math oh well it makes sense but the peolpe i play with always have noc first hand and when ever they need it really so big sheild is a must were i live

lol. i was maindecking 2 big shields till i realized...

the probability that you draw big shield and your opponent draws nobleman is .08. actually less... 8%??? no way, lol. they are out! lol.


and i do want to be an english major. i hate math- but im VERY good at it, lol.

Wow, man. That was actually really helpful.

One quick question...where did you start the idea for thinking a mathimatical way to prove something......Bastion Misawa...lol

The only problem I see with your reasoning is Graceful Charity. Drawing that card make the chance increase. Not very much I'm sure.

Now, the chances of the opening hand containing NoC is small, but on your 2-3 turn, depending on the slimming posibilites of your deck, you will most likely have a NoC.

Good work ronin.

Gah, too many numbers... brain hurts.

Great job Ronin.

thanks. i really thought the probability was a LOT higher, until i got bored while i was sick... and started doing random math...

PS- the chance of drawing graceful in your opening hand is...
(1C1 x 39C5) / (40C6) = .15 so exactly a 15% chance of getting her.

but- you are indeed VERY correct. that does raise the probability of drawing a nobleman slightly. not much, but a little bit.


and- indeed- getting one by turn 4 or so is a LOT more likely. BUT- by then, there is no reason for you not to have established a tempo for the game.


thanks guys. :)

Wow thanks for those formulas :D They really help me evaluate the odds of successfully getting off a flip effect in advanced.

I don't belive in math, I do belive in luck.

dont believe in math...

lol. kinda like the scientologists dont believe in psycology? lol. cause... math doesnt exist? lol.

thats kew.

Man, pure genious. It reminds me randomly of what we're doing in maths at the moment...(maths in german sucks :omg!!! )...I never even thought of working out deck probablility....wow....the stuff we learn in school does come in handy :noway:

lol, yeah. its really helped me come to grips with some deck making possibilities, and has changed my playstyle quite a bit. :)

statistics are fun. I use them all the time.

I hate using statistics... It's like the good way of cheating.

How is it cheating to know the statistics? It's just a handy tool that kinda makes you smarter than your opponents, lol.

lol. stats are like cheating?? lol.

no...

drawing extra cards is cheating. stalling is cheating. markign your sleeves is cheating. being smart enough to know your chances of drawing a card? thats... just being a little bit smart, lol.

Well ok, The way I duel is that way I like it, and I win... So thats all that really counts. You guys like stats, and I don't.

im sorry max suffrage. you are right. no one should be trying to help you find ways to improve yourself, because you have already become the nationals champion.

wait... no? lol.
the way you play right now is NOT all that matters. well... not until you start REALLY winning.

Ok, Ill try it once :D

(plus i suck at math :lol:)

is that a joke ronin or is suffrage really on this site plus stats make the game so much better guys dont depend on luck cause it never comes through in the end like today i had a chance for 25 dollars that i missed out on cause i did the math wrong he ended up winning but it was funny i broke with breaker three times and he didnt notice like no help with adding spell counters he was just not paying atention then a removed two lights for sorcerer and he didnt notice and i preed another sorcer another game when it hadnt been special summoned

Math matters alot in YuGiOh, whether you realize it or not. Every move you make is based on a mathematical equation. To judge whether to use for example nobleman of extermination, or dust tornado is using mathematics to determine the effectiveness. Say in your area everyone uses 3 Wabokus. You could say (or think in your head without noticing it )3:1, where as dust tornadoes would only be 1:1.

- no- i was being sarcastic. he said his play style was perfect, and i countered by bringing to his attention he has not won nationals yet- therefore- it is not. lol.

- stats can be used more effectively by...

does my opponent have mirror force set?
does my opponent have a nobleman?
does my opponent have a sakuretsu down?

these questions can actually be guessed at pretty strong if you are a good player. i cant tell you how many times ive seen people LOSE games because they didnt take the time to try and figure out their opponent's side of the field. you'll take home quite a few more regionals victories that way.

^ ... I have to say something. Thanks and sorry... I guess my cocky-ness got out. I tryed it in a 3 person duel (me, and my two other brothers). It really helpped out, I still will have to train a but with that because I'm not the best math person in the world. I 'liked' my old way, But this way will help me out in both ways, Math and Dueling. Thanks ^_^

Edit: Next ill have to use it in a Tournament.

hey- dont worry bro. i know that all too often i get over-confident. its something that every player needs to deal with. :) its probably the hardest part about the game.