Report: Caucasus Could Become the New Balkans By TOM KINGTON, ROMEhttp://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=521239&C=europeThe Western European Union (WEU) will urge the European Union on Nov. 29 to take steps to prevent an arms race between Armenia and Azerbaijan and to aid stability in the Caucasus, thus avoiding a situation which WEA vice president Marco Zacchera warned could turn the region into “another Balkans,” with serious spillover dangers for Europe.
A report set to be approved by the WEU — Europe’s interparliamentary security and defense assembly — also urges the European Union to monitor Russia’s “divide and rule” policy in the strategic, oil-rich region, and to convince Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia to prioritize democratic government, rule of law, and transparency in order to avoid destabilization.
The report lists as concerns in the region:
• Russia’s relationship with breakaway movements in Georgia and its maintenance of troops there;.
• The Armenian-Azeri stand-off over the disputed Nagorno Karabakh territory;.
• The closure of the Turkish-Armenian border;.
• The general lack of transparent government in the region.
• The failure of states to live up to their commitments to NATO’s Partnership for Peace program.
The report states that Russia’s supply of volunteers and military equipment to separatists in South Ossetia, within Georgia was “not helpful or conducive to stabilizing the situation — the more so if one considers Russia’s attitude towards the Chechen separatists.” With its status in doubt, the area had become a “haven for smugglers and powerful criminal organizations.”
Regarding Georgia’s other breakaway region, Abkhazia, the report recommends that Georgia should seek a solution by improving ties with Russia, which in turn has hindered a settlement as part of its “divide and rule” policy.
In a cover statement to the report, author Zacchera — who also is an Italian member of parliament — wrote: “A strange and subtle game is being played in Georgia by Russia, or rather by the Russian generals who control the Caucasus, and who justify their presence thanks to tension there, while increasing their salaries through control of the routes to the south.”
Russia in 2003 “threatened intervention against what were allegedly Chechen rebel camps” in Georgia’s Pankisi Gorge and “unidentified military aircraft dropped bombs on nearby forests,” adds the report.
Russia has complied only partially with a commitment to reduce its military presence in Georgia, and Moscow retains military facilities and “a heavy armor factory in Tbilisi which is used to repair Armenian battle tanks and is a source of concern to Azerbaijan,” states the report, adding that Georgia remains a key transit country for aiding Armenia.
Georgia, which aims to join NATO, has welcomed U.S. military trainers, creating “a sense of disturbance and unease among Russian officials, which has found vocal expression in military circles,” despite more conciliatory comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin, adds the report.
On the other hand, the growing control of Russian firms over the Georgian energy sector has prompted the United States to reduce its financial assistance to Georgia “in a show of discontent.”
Armenia and Azerbaijan
Armenia remains firmly within Russia’s orbit, the report says, after Moscow transferred an estimated $1 billion in weapons there between 1994-96, moved hardware from dismantled bases in Georgia to the country in 2002-03 and now has 3,500 troops based there. The United States, meanwhile, gave Armenia $10 million in 2002 and $18 million in 2003 in direct military aid and military assistance programs. The country’s borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan remain closed, boosting transport costs between Turkey and Central Asia by 30 to 50 percent, or 300 million euros ($397.5 million).
Armenia has yet to reach a settlement with its oil-rich neighbor, Muslim Azerbaijan, over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, which spawned armed conflict between the two in the 1990s and left thousands displaced. The report suggests Azerbaijan could use it its growing oil revenue to build up a military advantage over Armenia to win concessions.
Azerbaijan, meanwhile, was “virtually the sole Muslim country to support the U.S. coalition in the build-up to the war in Iraq,” and the first Muslim state to send peacekeeping troops to Iraq. It is balancing the acceptance of U.S. military assistance with a 2003 military cooperation deal with Russia that covers arms sales by Moscow.
“The [Azeri] government is reluctant to trust the military as a result of early attempts by military leadership to play a role in political affairs,” states the report. “The military leadership has been politicized, and effective command and control are impeded by political funding, lack of experience and corruption.”
The report plays down the eventual importance of the region, and Azerbaijan in particular, in oil supplies, noting that production costs are around $14 a barrel, higher than the $12 to $13 paid in the North Sea, or $4 in the Middle East, for geological and geographical reasons.
Corruption
The report notes a lack of transparent government throughout the southern Caucasus, adding that in Armenia “corruption is systematic and pervasive at all levels,” with independent experts claiming the black economy accounts for more than 35 percent of gross domestic product.
Azerbaijan’s politics and economics are “based on patronage, institutionalized corruption, and regional and clan influences,” it adds.