Breaking news:


Today (27-09-2006) the European Parliament adopted the evaluation report on Turkey. It was adopted by 429 votes in favour to 71 against with 125 abstentions.


IHT - European Parliament says more reforms in Turkey needed before EU talks can progress

DPA - Euro MPs Slam Turkey On Human Rights, Drop Genocide Clause

What is your prediction about what's coming next?

Well,nothing will happen....probably entrance talks will be delate for a couple of years.

I believe that many things will happen but there seem to be many possible routes:

1) Turkey stays in the same course. Nobody knows how far this can continue or what the end might be, but Turkey joining the EU before 2015 is unlikely.

2) Turkey pursues a "special relationship" with EU. Actually this might work best for them, as it is very unlikelly that EU will keep hard-pressing for reforms in this case.

3) Turkey turns its back to EU, through elections. This begs the question what happens next? A shift to a more sacred or a more secular state?

4) Another coup d'etat. General Ilker Basbug, chief of land forces, stated on Sep 27 2006: "The Turkish Armed Forces [TSK] has always taken sides and will continue to take sides in protecting the nation-state, the unitary state and the secular state" and "I have to say with regret that the Islamic reactionary threat, even if some don’t want to see this, has reached alarming levels"

until the time we jion EU threre will be no EU left !!!
like 20 drivers in one bus trying to go.

adapting new laws and improving business ok. but the things they want some of them realy un exectible.

may be Eu would exept north iraq as Eu member because of petroleum... ;)
Kaan

I am optimistic that EU will live on. The major problem is administrative. With all the expansion it has become more and more difficult to govern it. It remains to be seen how EU will deal with the challenge and whether it will also develop a strong presence in, say, defense or geopolitics. It also remains to be seen what its future relations with US, Russia, NATO and other players will transform.

In regards with Turkey, I don't think it will join the EU as a full member any time soon. Having a special relationship is more realistic and, unless something changes, I would expect this to be the outcome.

In my view the mistake that the west (EU, USA etc) makes is believing they have the best model of governance (western democracy) which everyone will enthusiastically adopt if given the chance.

I take it that USA proved how wrong this was with Iraq. There is absolutely no sign that people there want to have a western democracy. The fact is that western democracy only works when it comes from the people - not when imposed upon the people. I believe Turkey is also such a case. The west wants to force a western democracy but Turkey just doesn't wish so.

More on the reaction of Turkish armed forces to the political changes:
IHT - Turkish navy chief joins other military leaders in warning of growing Islamist threat

I find the recently increased number of such statements on behalf of the Turkish armed forces alarming. I would expect a crucial Oct 2 key speech by Buyukanit.