regards,
CDTRF

A free-trade area comprising the Southeastern Tigers plus the future economic superpowers will certainly affect the global economy. Of course, someone might speculate whether adversely or positively.


As in nearly every "construct" the egoisms have to be abolished in order to attain a certain status of symbiosis. The nationalistic egoisms include here the protectionist stances which states try to maintain. Japan could, to some extent, be compared to France.

Historical enemyship, for instance, between India/China and China/Japan is also crucial in this matter.

Of course mate, another ridiculuous thing we write all these economical news,things among us...no one want to contribute more.Why? is it out of view of our forum? ;)

On the other hand, if it s possible, this EU type free trade zone among asian countries will give a boost in the region and it will be real rival for all world. Maybe we can join to their free zone era.

Such an offer needs at least a decade to mature. Political and cultural climate in Asia is not suitable atm for such wide spread co operation in my oppinion.

Indeed CDTRF. And the most striking thing is that an increasing number of economic developments have more political impact than other "conventional" political issues but still nobody seems to be interested.


Beleg, where have you identified the immaturity for the step ?

First
imo the situation in Central Asia and the Middle East has to mature for such a co operation to work. Asia lacks the natural resources to sustain economical growth. They depend on these zones and the winner of the current energy cold war will probably determine the political furute of the world. Currently even tho the money seems sweet, China Japan Korea India Taiwan have very strong political conflicts with each other. However it might work earlier without China, which otoh will bring China and Russia closer to each other maybe with Central Asian Turkic states.

The energy issue is crucial.
Concerning this matter, it seems difficult to conclude that long standing rivalries will diminish in the short-term or medium-term. Although as mentioned resource supplying and demanding countries will erect strong strategic alliances.
Since the majority of Asian countries are demanding countries rivalry is, under current circumstances, nearly inescapable.



A hypothetical question might be:

What will happen if convential resources, especially oil, loses weight in the energy portofolio and is displaced by materials/techniques which can be produced in a country.

Then they might live happily everafter..

Japan-S.Korea-India-China(maybe)-Turkey-Singapore-Malesia-Taiwan(maybe)-Tailand...

These are enough good to make a common market in the region. Surely, it is not so unreasonable so as to expect the they to work on this common vision while other examples in front of us like Nafta and EU.On the other hand, it s more different than EU.It is only economical,not like EU's concept.Surely,not to easy to make a market in a few months or years. But it is possible to make it real in 5 years.This is my estimation. Meanwhile, it is certainly essentialto take a long term view of the situation.At least they can provide a vision,perspective.

Let me allow to give a name of that kind of job; UAM or AMAR, CWA :D

The degree of (immediate) feasibility for the project lessens with the intensity of cooperation.

A free-trade area is a construct that might stimulate GDP growth something the complete area could benefit from. Of course, one could critisize whether the free-trade principle is the right concept for a specific cause. Although it is assured that it stimulates growth it doesnt specify where this "new" wealth is accumulated.

Taiwan now chooses India over China

TIMES NEWS NETWORK[ MONDAY, APRIL 17, 2006 12:02:43 AM]

MUMBAI: The complex relationship between China, Taiwan and the US may have a positive impact on India. The issue at stake is the large electronic manufacturing capacity that has made Taiwan the 14th-largest economy in the world.

Politically, Taiwan has been trying to distance itself from China; economically, the country’s fortunes are closely intertwined with China.

Taiwanese companies have invested close to $200bn in China, and are realising they have put too many eggs in one basket. So, they want to diversify their risks away from China.

In some cases, customers of the electronic manufacturing industry of Taiwan want vendors to diversify its risks. Taiwan also wants to move away from hard-core manufacturing to the next level of software-centric-growth and partner with countries like India.

According to Jamestown Foundation, a think-tank focused on Geopolitics of a global world and its impact on US, “There is a perception in Beijing, Washington, and in the region that President Chen Shui-bian is determined to attain de jure independence.

Talk of using Taiwan identity as a basis for re-engineering — as opposed to amending — the Constitution and eventually establishing processes for amendment by referendum intensifies this perception and provokes Beijing.

This, in turn, raises concerns about instability or conflict. Mr Chen and his predecessor, Lee Teng-hui, have successfully altered the terms of the cross-strait discourse.

Until Mr Lee’s accession, most assumed that Beijing and Taipei would eventually agree to some form of reunification. This was a lesson of the initial Koo-Wang talks held in Singapore in 1993.

However, after Mr Lee’s election as president, the concept of the ‘Special State-to State Relationship’ emerged. Beijing viewed this as an explicit renunciation of the ‘one country two systems’ formulation.

President Lee’s ‘flexible diplomacy’, his ‘golfing vacations’, and his visit to the US seemed to substantiate these concerns.”

“Taiwanese MNCs have been investing in various countries over the past two decades. This diversification is based on the individual company’s globalisation and liberalisation policy. They are well-equipped at de-risking strategies and expansions for positive growth.

Taiwanese MNCs do not believe in putting all their eggs in a single basket, thus they are setting up branches in India to make better use of the resources,” Thomas Chang, director, Taipei World Trade Centre, says.

One side affect of this is that think-tanks like Institute for Information Industry (III) are advising Taiwanese companies to move manufacturing to India.

GJ Huang, executive VP, III, says, “India is an important partner of Taiwan for industrial development. There is going to be paradigm shift in foreign investments made by Taiwan.”

Currently, trade between India and Taiwan is $2.5bn, which means India accounts for only 0.67% of Taiwan’s external trade and Taiwan accounts for 0.87% of India’s external trade.

China accounts for more than 30% of Taiwan’s external trade. Taiwan has invested $200bn in China and only $200m in India till date. Mr Huang says, “This wide gap shows there is a huge opportunity for Taiwan to explore investment options in India.

Taiwan and India complement each other because Taiwan has the expertise in hardware and manufacturing, while India is known for software and system designs.

The partnership between India and Taiwan is important for both countries. In future, India will receive huge investments from Taiwan. The cost of manufacturing in India is lower than China and the quality is better.”

Some Taiwanese companies have already started exploring India for manufacturing. Taiwan-based Foxconn is a listed company with an m-cap of over $6bn.

It has set up a manufacturing base for mobile phones in Chennai with an investment of $110m. Even III has opened an offshore development centre in Chennai.

While the logic is right, the bigger challenge to the seismic shift is the cultural issue. Taiwan and China share a common cultural heritage, which Taiwanese companies are unable to get in India.

But there is a solution in terms of JVs and co-investment evolving. Taiwanese distribution company Synnex picked up 34% in India’s Redington last year.

Taiwan has set up a trade promotion council in Mumbai, and every month, Taiwanese delegations visit India for investment. Chennai & the National Capital Region attract maximum attention.


http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1492550.cms

Chinese concern grows over potential for economy to overheat
JENNIFER HILL

FEARS yesterday mounted that the Chinese economy is overheating, after figures showed growth in the first quarter far exceeded expectations.

China's president, Hu Jintao, said the country's annual economic growth quickened to 10.2 per cent in the first three months of the year, well above previous growth estimates for 2006.

Government economists earlier offered predictions of 8.5-9 per cent for this year - a range in line with estimates by the World Bank and many private economists.

Hu said the Chinese government was concerned about overly rapid growth, which could put pressure on it to let the yuan rise faster.

"We do not seek high-speed economic growth," he said during a meeting with Lien Chan, a former Taiwan opposition leader, in Beijing. "We are concerned about the pace of development and the quality and effect of our growth."

The blistering pace marks a pick-up from the fourth quarter of 2005, when gross domestic product rose 9.9 per cent from a year earlier.

China's economy has overshot official targets for the past few years.

It expanded an average 10 per cent per year in 2003-5, making it the fourth or fifth biggest economy in the world, but Hu said Beijing was not pursuing rapid growth for its own sake.

"We are paying more attention to the transformation of the mode of growth, resource conservation, environmental protection and, more importantly, the improvement of the lives of the people," he said.

A raft of strong partial data has pointed to growth of money supply well above target, a surge in loan growth and a 41 per cent increase in trade surplus in the first quarter from a year earlier.

Gao Shanwen, the chief economist at China Everbright Securities in Shanghai, said strong global growth was driving demand for Chinese goods, offsetting the impact of a cumulative 3.2 per cent appreciation of the yuan against the dollar since July.

China's growth could reach 10.5 per cent this year - the fastest rate since 1995 - he said. Against that backdrop, it was an "inevitable trend" that the yuan would be allowed to rise faster, Gao said.

Some US law-makers and economists contend the yuan is unfairly undervalued by as much as 40 per cent, handing China an advantage on world markets that is destroying US jobs.

America's trade deficit with China, which hit a record high last year, is likely to be high on the agenda when Hu meets President George W Bush at the White House on Thursday.

From a purely domestic perspective, Gao said the case was hardening for the authorities to cool growth, as leaders become increasingly worried about possible overheating.

That could come in the form of requiring banks to tie up more cash with the central bank - money that could, therefore, not be extended as credit.

"I think the authorities are very likely to raise bank reserve requirements in the near future," he said.


http://business.scotsman.com/economy.cfm?id=578972006