ArticleLike all sports, NASCAR is a game of numbers. The postseason has 10 races, five on 1.5-mile tracks. At the halfway point of the Chase for the NASCAR Nextel Cup, three intermediate tracks remain.
These venues are referred to as cookie-cutter tracks for their uniformity, but the drivers insist that's a misnomer. They're right. Engineers would agree.
The banking varies from track to track and even on the turns at the same track (Homestead). Plus, the front stretches at Atlanta and Homestead are dramatically different. But the tracks have a lot in common, too, and the team that has its downforce act together — specifically aerodynamic and engine packages — figures to have a sizable advantage at Atlanta (Oct. 29), Texas (Nov. 5) and Homestead (Nov. 19).
Here are the drivers to watch:
Jeff Burton. The new Iceman cometh, and his competitors wonder whether Burton can be stopped. His only hiccup came from a cut tire at Talladega. Take away Burton's 25th-place finish in March at Atlanta and his average finish at intermediate tracks this year is 4.8. No wonder his rivals are shaking in their driving shoes.
Matt Kenseth. He led the most laps at Las Vegas and Chicago. He has won at Texas, where his average finish is 12.1. Kenseth has six top 10 finishes in 13 starts at Atlanta and finished third at Homestead last year.
But Kenseth has concerns about his primary downforce car. Alhough he finished fifth in May at Lowe's and won at Fontana and Michigan in the car, he struggled last weekend at Lowe's. He had a poor performance at Kansas, too.
Kasey Kahne. With finishes of 16th, 38th and 33rd in the first three Chase races, Kahne dug a sizable deficit. But he leads the tour with six wins and gained two positions in the last two weeks, moving into eighth place, 160 points out of first. If anyone can rebound, it's Kahne. Don't be surprised if he sweeps Atlanta and Texas in the same dominant fashion as Charlotte.
Kahne drove his favorite car at Lowe's. His best car — chassis 128, which has won five races — was held back for Atlanta.Jimmie Johnson. Johnson's versatility is well-documented, but his downforce prowess is the core of his Nextel Cup success. Eight of his 22 career victories have come on 1.5-milers. His average finish on intermediate tracks in 2006 is 6.0.
Johnson won the fall Atlanta race in 2004. His best finishes at Texas and Homestead are third and second, respectively.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. The turnaround with the No. 8's downforce program is impressive. Earnhardt's sole win in 2005 came at Chicago. In seven intermediate track starts this season, he has finished 12th or better six times.
Some drivers dread the high speeds at Atlanta and Texas, but Earnhardt feeds on them. However, he has never finished better than 13th at Homestead.
Mark Martin. Martin was running in the top five before he took the hardest hit of his career last weekend at Lowe's and mangled his favorite car. Martin finished ninth or better in five of the other six intermediate races.
Martin has wins at Atlanta and Texas. He finished second at Homestead last season and has four top fives in seven starts.