I :hearts this Ed Hinton guy that wrote this.


September 12, 2006

RICHMOND, Va. -- Maybe this time NASCAR should rename the "Chase for the
Championship" the "Cavalry Charge."

The 10-driver playoff field lines up so laterally that there's as strong a case
for picking last-place Kasey Kahne to win the Nextel Cup as there is for
first-place Matt Kenseth.

In between, there are enough drivers with solid shots that the only thing clear
about the season title is that Tony Stewart won't repeat. Stewart, the 2005
champion, suddenly and stunningly missed the cut in the final race of the
regular season, Saturday night's Chevy Rock & Roll 400 at Richmond International
Raceway.

Of the ones who made the playoffs -- in order, Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson, Kevin
Harvick, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Mark Martin, Jeff Burton,
Jeff Gordon and Kahne -- Kenseth said, "Any of the 10 could get on a roll."

That's more than a platitude this time, although some are likelier than others.

With the reshuffling of points to bunch up the field for the Chase, only
five-point increments separate each driver. That means Kahne could erase his
45-point deficit to Kenseth in a single race.

Kenseth goes into the opening Chase race Sunday in Loudon, N.H., with plenty of
momentum, having won two races back-to-back in August and overtaken Johnson at
the top of the standings.

But Kahne, with a dominating win two weeks ago at California Speedway, is back
in top form on intermediate-size tracks, where all of his tour-best five wins
have come this season. Of the 10 Chase races, five will come on intermediates,
three of which -- Charlotte, Atlanta and Texas -- Kahne already has won on this
season. So he has a realistic chance to equal or break the Chase record for race
wins, Johnson's four in 2004.

Johnson and Gordon are battle-hardened veterans of stretch runs to
championships. Johnson has been in the hunt (finishing fifth or better) every
season since arriving at the Cup level in 2002, though he has yet to win a
title.

Gordon has the most championships, four, of any active driver, though he fell
short in the first Chase in '04 and missed the playoffs last year. No way the
pressure cracks either of them.

Harvick has the immediately obvious momentum, coming off a victory Saturday
night. But Richmond historically has been a strong track for him, so his wave
isn't necessarily cresting. What Harvick adds to this Chase, his first, is his
notorious aggressiveness and volatility. Win or lose, he'll spice it up.

Busch, teammates with Gordon and Johnson with Hendrick Motorsports, lost only
narrowly to Harvick in a last-lap duel in Richmond and has to be the early
favorite at New Hampshire, having won there in July. Busch's older brother, Kurt
Busch, won at New Hampshire to open the '04 Chase and never was headed after
that.

Hamlin, a rookie, could benefit from teammate Stewart's shortfall. Without
playoff pressure himself, Stewart is free to be both a coach and a
research-and-development driver for Hamlin, whom he genuinely likes. So Hamlin
has a realistic chance to become the first driver ever to be rookie of the year
and overall champion in the same season.

Earnhardt, the people's overwhelming choice, missed the Chase last year. He
could win his first championship on the strength of consistently high finishes
rather than wins. Before finishing a cautious 17th Saturday night, Earnhardt had
finishes of sixth, third and second -- a stretch "as good as our performance has
been, ever," he said of his team.

Of the two drivers who made the Chase without wins this season, Burton is
likelier to see Victory Lane -- perhaps more than once -- during the playoffs
than Martin. Burton has led races and flirted with winning on an almost-weekly
basis since the beginning of August. He could peak just right to break out of a
losing streak that has dragged on for five years and, in the process, emerge as
the dark horse for the championship.

Among makes, Chevrolet has the overwhelming mathematical advantage with seven
Monte Carlos in the Chase, to two Fords (Kenseth and Martin) and one Dodge
(Kahne).

As for teams as favorites, Hendrick has the most drivers in with three --
Johnson, Busch and Gordon.

Roush Racing, with two drivers (Kenseth and Martin), may be even better off than
it was last year when five drivers made the Chase. This time, as the Chase goes
on, Roush could turn Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards and Jamie McMurray into the best
squadron of R&D drivers ever, with all their technical data going straight to
Kenseth and Martin.

With Harvick and Burton, storied Richard Childress Racing is in contention for
the championship for the first time since the late Dale Earnhardt lost to Gordon
at the wire of the 1995 season. A title would be RCR's first since Earnhardt
Sr.'s seventh in '94.

Solo representatives of their teams are Earnhardt Jr., Hamlin and Kahne. But
with Kahne's proven strength on intermediate tracks, one entry may be plenty for
Evernham Motorsports and Dodge.

If you have to pick just one out of this cavalry charge, figure the last shall
be first -- that Kahne, who squeaked into the Chase by 16 points over Stewart,
now will go on to win it all.

Very nice article. Thanks for sharing.

:gokasey2

It could be any of 'em. That's what I love about the Chase.

Great article and so very true. Any of them could go on to win the title regardless of where they are currently slotted.

It's a crap shoot now. Anyone can win that championship.

I agree with everyone.. it's anybody's Championship to win.

its def anyones to win........

but I'm still not a Chase convert, sorry I just don't ever see it happening unless they make some major changes. Am I extremely happy that my guy is in it? Hell yea and I do hope Kasey goes on to win it and if he does he'll be a deserving champ because he played the game by the rules set forth, but do I really like the rules? No, I don't. I think I could like the Chase if a few changes are made, but I still liked the old system too....right now my driver would be sitting in 10th and he'd have to be virtually perfect the last 10 and hope for some setbacks from others to win it all, but at the same time a good solid last ten and Kasey very well could have finished 3rd under the old system which is not bad at all.

This years Chase more than the last 2 years I think has potential to really come down to Homestead and a lot of guys fighting for it........but I still wonder if consistency will win out and if we are going to reward the championship on being consistent rather than rewarding winning races then why have the Chase? Just see who is consistent over 36, not 10.

But I def like what the article says about Kasey, I've been meaning too and I will shortly get to breaking down the final 10 races and Kasey's chances. But Kasey's got a great chance with the final 10 races the way they are.......and really not to many people are thinking Kasey will do much, so I think that plays into his favor. For most of them they are just glad he's in but don't think he'll win it all.

Critics might be overlooking him, but his fellow Top 10 are not. They know he has a strong car and can be a dominate driver. He's the one they fear the most.

RacingOne Power Rankings

Pete Pistone
Managing Editor Posted Tuesday, September 12, 2006


Driver Ratings

The latest edition of the RacingOne NEXTEL Cup Series Power Rankings as the series heads to New Hampshire International Speedway for Sunday's Sylvania 300, which features NASCAR's new comprehensive statistical ratings system using a detailed formula to calculate each driver's performance.

Editor's Note: Top 10 rankings are generated by a formula combining the following categories: Win, Finish, Top-15 Finish, Average Running Position While on Lead Lap, Average Speed Under Green, Fastest Lap, Led Most Laps, Lead-Lap Finish. Maximum: 150 points per race.

1. Matt Kenseth (Last week's ranking: 1st)
Worked hard to enter the "Chase" as the leader, now officially has the bullseye on his back as the playoffs start.

2. Jimmie Johnson (Last week's ranking: 2nd)
Comes into the "Chase" second and only five points out of the lead, but there still has to be a little concern in the No. 48 camp over yet another disppointing pre-playoffs run.

3. Jeff Gordon (Last week's ranking: 3rd)
Despite a dismal Richmond outing, still gets his chance for a fifth NEXTEL Cup title.

4. Greg Biffle (Last week's ranking: 5th)
Leads in many statistical categories but can only play the role of spoiler down the stretch.


5. Tony Stewart (Last week's ranking: 5th)
Saw this coming in mid-summer when week-after-week the No. 20 car was off the pace and playing catch-up.

6. Jeff Burton (Last week's ranking: 6th)
Raced his way into the "Chase" and with that pressure off, may be in position to reel off a few wins.

7. Kevin Harvick (Last week's ranking: 7th)
Maybe the driver with the most momentum and confidence heading into the "Chase" on the heels of his stellar weekend in Richmond

8. Kyle Busch (Last week's ranking: 9th)
Had what looked like a sure win taken from him in the final laps at Richmond and comes into the "Chase" with a bitter taste in his mouth.

9. Denny Hamlin (Last week's ranking: 8th
Flat track specialist could shine during the "Chase" at New Hampshire and Phoenix.

10. Kasey Kahne (Last week's ranking: 10th)
Squeaked into the "Chase" and next to Harvick might be the driver feared most at this point of the playoff run.

You better believe it! lol But yeah I agree with everyone too, it's anyone's championship. (Insert Name Here), 2006 Nextel Cup Champion. LOL

Great Articles! Thanks for sharing! :)