A lot of people used to tell me that TA was useless, that TA was nonsenese. Most
of them would have a common system of belief; that if you study the fundamental
numbers and you have the connection to information, that is the way to analyse.

They could go on and on to try to prove and if I joined in to try to rebuke, heat
was bound to be generated. So I would just let them be, let them carry on with
their rheotic. This is akin to people having different religous or political belief.
Just let them be.

You cannot be sure of the reliabilty of reported fundamental numbers. They should
be true but they can be not as you would have learned by now. You cannot forever
be sure of the quality of your connection. It is common and it is the human nature
for a lot of people in the market to make use of others. And many fall into their
traps.

But there is one connection you can have. There is no need to curry favour
anyone. You don't have to waste money on entertainment or building your quanxi.
You just need to decide that this is the connection and you want it. It is that simple.

That connection is the ability of Technical Analysis to show the action of those
connection you need not waste money on. Inevitable you will see this over and
over again. The smart ones used to say that the market is not really that level.
In a way they are correct. But the smarter ones use the tools to detect the
action of those connection they do not wish to established usually for ethical
and law abiding reasons. You don't need insider trading. you don't need news
leakage. You just need to "see" what they are doing.

What I write here is not about the good or bad of this stock. It is only about the
tools provided by Technical Analysis.

On 27 Feb 2006, the company announced full-year financial results, rights issue
and general offer for PacNet. But before that... 2-1/2 weeks before... 1-1/2 weeks
before... days before...

days before.... and...?

pls continue and give more details of your analysis for those of us who are not as savy!

and law abiding reasons. You don't need insider trading. you don't need news
leakage. You just need to "see" what they are doing.

"What I write here is not about the good or bad of this stock.
It is only about the tools provided by Technical Analysis."

On 27 Feb 2006, the company announced...

So many times in the history of stock market the fallacy of insider information was
provem time and again. Yet there will always be people looking for tips, insider
information contacts, people in the know and so on. Human beings, cunning as
they have always been, are usually not that kind hearted. They will always have a
motive to feed you with information. They have an interest to get you to create
the demand for them to unload... onto you of course. They want you to be high
when the price is high. You are the most drowsy up there and your greed will not
allow you to see clearly. Fools will still persist to look for such and act as such.

You need to guard your mind, you need to guard your weak human nature. With
technical analysis, you can spot the action (read motive) of those luring people in.
You can also avoid being high at the high, being drowsy and lead to the slaughter
house.

It was not a perfect failure swing, there was not really a divergence. But it was
close enough, at least close enough to alert you. It came on the same day that
the Turtle exit was hit. The Turtle exit was hit earlier and slightly higher.

央行上调金融机构存贷款利率加大宏观调控力度

18 August 2006

The China's interest rate news hit the newswire around 5.15pm - 5.30pm,
depending on your news provider.

But take a look at MSCI Taiwan afternoon session.
Normally a quiet session since the Taiwan market is closed.
But selling pressure since 4pm yesterday. They knew.

Take a look at the yen and Nikkei 225 afternoon session,
reaction at 5.15 pm.

Then look at DAX, the dominant market for the time period,
they simply do not care what is happening in China.

The yen, gave back its gain shortly,
perhaps deciding its not her business too.

But the interesting thing to note is Nikkei took much longer to recover,
and in fact close at the low for the afternoon session.
(It recovered during CME trading session)

--- ---

My point is you may not know the news,
but you still can profit from it
because markets do not move at the same time.

You may not know the correct value
but you can make a sound judgement comparing different markets.

--- ---

Now the interesting question is,
MSCI Singapore closed at 5.15 pm at the high.
No chance for any reaction to the China's news.

Looking at Taiwan, Japan, US.
How would you want to make your money on Monday's opening.

Will someone price wrongly ?
If so, hit him hard.

The cash offer of 1.75/1.88 was officially made only yesterday, 1Mar2007.
No one who is not supposed to know about this confidential information
is not supposed to know. Those who know is not allowed to act on it. Yet
just looking at the chart, it is difficult not to suspect that there was trading
on this privilege information in the days running up to the official
announcement.

Under Singapore law, trading on privilege information is illegal.