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http://www.crbtrader.com/trader/v09n05/v09n05a05.aspSTARC Bands
The STARC bands (Stoller Average Range Channels) developed by Manning Stoller in the late 1980s are based on the true range. This is calculated by taking the largest absolute value of the following three calculations; H-L, H-C or L-C. Then a 15-day average is taken of the true range, which is referred to as the ATR. To determine the STARC+ or the upper STARC band you add 2xATR to a six-period simple moving average (6SMA) and for the STARC- or lower STARC band, you would subtract 2xATR from the (6SMA). Approximately 90 percent of the time prices will stay within the bands. If 3xATR is used instead of 2xATR then almost 100 percent of the price action is contained between the upper and lower bands. Unlike other trading bands based on percentages around a moving average, the same formula and same parameters are used for any market and any time frame. Therefore, they do not have to be adjusted or optimized for a particular market.
How To Use STARC Bands
There are a variety of uses for STARC bands, but the most basic is to determine high and low risk buying or selling opportunities. If prices are near or at the upper bands (STARC+) it is a high-risk time to buy (establish a long position) and when prices are at or near the lower bands (STARC-) it is a high-risk time to sell (establish a short position). This does not mean that the market will automatically reverse direction once the bands are reached, but it increases the odds that the market will either bounce in the opposite direction or at least move sideways for several periods. This can be very important when a market is moving sharply either up or down and has been doing so for three or four bars as the impulse to chase the market becomes unbearable.
Often traders cannot resist the urge to buy or sell at these extremes only to have the position quickly go against them and stop them out. Invariably, the market will then resume its original direction, leaving the trader without a position and very frustrated. By noting the relationship of prices to the STARC bands, one can gauge the risk on either the short or long side. An option trader's strategy can then be adjusted in relation to the STARC bands. If prices are at the STARC+ band, call buying would be a high risk, while a bearish strategy such as buying puts or establishing a bear spread, would be a lower risk. For example, the week of 10/3/97, point 1, Crude Oil, basis the nearby futures, closed above its upper weekly STARC band, which is a fairly uncommon event. By definition this was a high-risk area for long positions, but a low risk opportunity for short positions. Therefore, at point 1, put buying, call selling or bear spreads had the best risk/reward profile in terms of the STARC bands.
Figure 1:
The STARC bands can also be used to help identify profit-taking zones. After the weekly STARC+ band was exceeded at point 1, over five months passed before the lower daily STARC band was reached, point 2. As discussed previously, both points 2 and 3, represented favorable risk situations for establishing long positions, such as put selling, bull spreads or call buying. Over the years, the most common complaint or money management mistake that option trader's express is that they stay with a position too long. This is especially true with naked put or call buyers. They will put on a position which immediately goes in their favor and may double in a short period of time. Even though this may have been their original goal, often greed sets in and instead of taking some or all of their profits, their judgment is clouded with visions of 300 to 500 percent gains. Ultimately, they hang on too long and are lucky to get out with any profit at all. The weekly STARC bands can be used as a guide to help avoid this reoccurring trap. As points 4, 5, 6 and 7 illustrate, taking profits once prices reach the weekly STARC bands historically has been advantageous. Although some of the retracements were not that large, some were—Crude Oil dropped over per barrel from point 6 to point 7.
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