Reposting from the Eu Yan Sang thread:


It can be difficult to answer a question asked of a stock that has already moved
up 23.5 N after the breakout. Strictly based on the Turtle rules there definitely
cannot be an entry since this would have been done long ago. Furthermore
entering at that time when the question was asked would violate the trading rules.
Of course the question may not be about entering (buying) but instead general
view. In which case not chasing would be the appropriate answer. Chasing here
means one is not in and the market is moving away or has already moved away a
lot.

I have been asked a number of times to be personal coach, something which I am
not comfortable doing. I know there are people doing this and their charges are
very high. But coaching is not a short term thing. There are many aspects of a
trader (person) which need to be addressed and this then becomes a life long
process. This is usually why most coaching program tend to fail in the long run.
Look at the original Turtles for example; when they were under the program they
did well but when they were on their own their performances vary. This is not to
say the Turlte system is not good. This has got to do with the individual's discipline
and his sticking to rules. Sticking to rules is difficult unless there are constant
reminders. So how long can a coach be around to remind? Impossible when the
coaching period is over.

From this I figure there is a demand for some sort of coaching. Not the person-to
-person type but a constant reinteration of the rules using analysis of real markets
using up-to-date data. There are a lot of resources on technical analysis with all
the books already published and the vast amount of references on the Internet.
But the biggest problem with these is that the samples are dated. While this is
good for example purpose it is not good for "coaching" purpose. Examples using
up-to-date analysis with up-to-date data as they are happening is the ideal for
there can be no realization of one's emotional and psychological makeup if one
doesn't see the analysis and techniques applied in real time.

I have not updated the webpage Let's Learn Technical Analysis for more
than a year now. From the web log, I can still see many web searches landing on
the articles there. The most is the A Look At The Turtle Trading System article.

So what I am doing is instead of being a personal coach, I am taking the name
"Let's Learn Technical Analysis" and re-incarnate it into a regular subscription
paper.

Here are some charts that can be expected in the new Let's Learn Technical
Analysis, The Market Education Paper. Except for Bollinger Band the others are
not available anywhere else. Of course there will be more then just these charts.

Another example of the type of things to come in Let's Learn Technical Analysis,
The Market Education Paper. Of course this is not everthing to it, there will be
more.

I can't help but notice that Global Voice hit the Top Volume list on 2Aug2005 and
after that consistently show up in the list. This not to say that Top Volume should
be used in this manner because, and this is very important to note, this is the
way "they" use to get people excited. But what I try to do is to identify the those
that "they" are still trying to put into their pocket BEFORE they get people excited.
Because when "they" get people excited it is time they take the shares out of their
pocket to put into yours.

If "they" are to accumulate a lot of inventory to clear onto "you" then they have to
create the market to absorb their inventory. Otherwise the market collapse on
them. To do that they have to get "you" excited via the Top Volume list. You push
and push prices higher, they let go and let go onto you. You buy they sell... to
you.

This is where Float Analysis comes in. To try to identify the moves early. Together
with Turtle and Bollinger Band, they are the Three Jewels. Of course they will be
supported by their other Jewels in the treasure chest.

Since 2Aug2005, the Free Float of Global Voice has turned over 2.45 times. Daily
volume has dropped off and prices has gone sideway. But Float Analysis did not
show a turnover top yet so the prevailing must still be respected until the time
when this view must be changed.

The charts on Global Voice posted yesterday were the weekly charts. You should
notice that the Bollinger Band is narrowing for the past few bars (weeks). You
can't see this on the price/BollingerBand overlay chart. You can only see this on
the chart in the lower subgraph - the one name BandWidth.

Unfortunately, a lot of people when they analyse Bollinger Band they only have
the price/BB overlay chart. They don't have or they don't think the BandWidth
indicator is important. This is the problem. You just can't see how wide or narrow
is the band from the price/BollingerBand overlay chart!

A narrowing bandwidth means the volatility of this stock price is dropping. Now
read very carefully - the volatility of this stock price is dropping. What is dropping?
Volatility! Don't read anything else from the statement.

Volatility? What volatility? I am only interested in price! If this is yor reaction then
you have not understood Bollinger Band. And if you have not understood Bollinger
Band then how are you going to apply it?

Now here are the daily charts for Global Voice. See the SQUEEZE? An EXPLOSION
should follow. But which side? Don't know. Cannot predict or rather no prediction
please.

The Turtle system is close to a breakout but it will skip this trade because of a
trading rule. Unless prices break above or below the FailSafe level.

So this breakout is not important as far as the Turlte system is concerned. But to
the BollngerBand trader, this is because it would coincide with the EXPLOSION that
is to come.

The Float? It has not made a float turnover yet. Since prices made high of $0.21
last month, the float has turned over 49.76 pct as of yesterday. Which side of the
float channel will be broken? Don't know but at this point whichever side will
coincide with the EXPLOSION. Only this is sure.

BOOOOM!!!!



An EXPLOSION has just occurred to the south. Since on daily chart, the damage there will be but may not be that great if explosion is on the weekly. But what is the weekly showing?

At first glance, the chart behaviour of New Wave looks like one that occurred on
the chart of Reed back around the middle of 2003. I can't forget that occurrence
on Reed chart as I watched it with much suspicion. Those of you who had read
what I posted in the Trading School thread on SI can probably still recall my
warning.

If the chart you are seeing shows the stock name of China Entertainment that is
because Reed has changed its name to China Entertainment.

But underneath all the actions, there is a major difference between the two. A run
of Larry William's Advance-Decline indicator is the clue. While there was
distribution (obviously then there were operators) there was no such distribution in
New Wave.

Reed had gone on from that to revert to its previous shell of an extremely illiquid
stock stucked in doldrums for lack of interest... and lack operators perhaps.

But New Wave looks like a different situation. There obviously are some exodus
from the stock. The rally was not that of the 5X magnitute in 2 months type of
operation in Reed. Instead it went up 1X.

What I read is that New Wave, unlike Reed, may not get stucked in the doldrums.
There were no operators but there were very quiet accumulation stretching over
5 months prior to the rally.

So the EXPLOSION in the Bollinger Band came. It exploded on the upside and at
the same time the float channel is being pushed higher in a staricase fashion with
the 50 pct float band giving visual support.

Now notice the Turtle system's Last Profitable Trade Filter rule. Notice that in my
previous post on this stock on 20 Dec, that the Turtle system will skip the next
trade (which was a short on 22Dec)? Well this turned out to be a good example of
how the rule works "in real time". That trade would have produced a loss but
because of the rule it was skipped.

Because the skipped trade was a loss therefore the next normal signal (not
necessary to be a FailSafe anymore) was a valid Turtle signal. That signal came
yesterday on the upside break of $0.20.

In my first post on this thread, I wrote:

This example is what I mean. An example also on constant reminder of the rules.

Good day sir, do you happened to be Chosinkum ( I might have gotten the id wrong ;) from SI). If you are really hope to see more articles relating to Buddism from ya. Anyways, really hope to learn more from ya on TA and looking forward to more postings from ya.

:ph43r:

Hi may I know what is the 3 years high on Keppel T&T, I saw on some TA expert's blog that it is 1.63, can someone verify it??

I have it as 1.67 on 22May and 26May last week.

Many thanks CSK for the prompt response :ph43r:

Reprieve should be here now. Whether it will turn into something permanent will
depened on any further human stupudity on believing news report blindly.

The news media want you to believe that not only the FED will hike rates again
but that the market is very concerned about it. This is what they have been
repeatly hampering away for the whole of last month day after day, in print, on
TV, on radio, on the Internet. If you cannot read news without a clear and
detached mind then no doubt you would have been suckered in as well.

The market, being the decision maker of interest rate direction (definitely not the
rubber-stamping FED), is firmed on their decision of a final 0.25 hike to 5.25 pct.
After this, no more rate hike, at least no more to Mar2007. When new futures
delivery months are listed, we can see further but as of now the lens can only see
up to Mar2007.




This decision has already been there, before May, for all to see in the very
transparent futures market. So since the market has already made the decision
of a 5.25 pct Fed Fund and most importantly has already priced this into financial
markets, what is this stupid human panic all about?

Why do human beings allowed their brains to be hammered daily by repeated
dosage of poison from the news media. Let's hope they wake up now. Let's hope
they put some reputable senese into themselves. Let's hope this chance of a
reprieve will not pass by knocking and no one open the door.

Market sentiment is too bearish. And with Merrill Lynch reported in yesterday's
paper to be bearish and that this is only the first salvo, I am even more of the
view that this May panic is a distraction and not a change in trend. Let's just
apologise to the market for the human stupidity shown (captured on the images
shown below) and move on.

The COT Index calculated from the Commiment Of Traders Report (COTR) as of
last Tue, 30May2006, and released by the CFTC on Fri, 2Jun2006, shows:

1) Commercials are bullish
2) Non-Commercials (Large Specualtors - funds, institutionals, etc) are bearish
3) Unreportable (Small Speculators - retail public) are bearish

This is a situation where the three index are in the ideal position for a meaningful
analysis to be made. It is a well known fact that when the Commercials COT
Index is bullish when at the same time the Non-Commercials and Unreportable
COT Index are bearish that the usefulness of the COT Index show its beauty.

Gold and Silver are now poised to go higher. What is left is for the smart money
now to wait for their buy setup for long entry.

The bull run is not happening only to the precious metals but also to industrial
metals. Here is a chart of copper. The Turtle system is similar at this stage in that
the system is not holding any positiion after exiting profitable longs recently.

The last profitable trade filter in Gold invalidated a sell signal It is monitoring time.

I forget to add that the Turtle Last Profitable Trade filter will also invalidate the
next "normal" entry signal on Copper but not if it breaks the 55-day FailSafe low
for a Sell, or the 55-day high for a Buy.