Barrings would not have collapsed if Leeson...
1) had followed a proven trading plan
2) had followed position sizing
3) had followed proper risk management
4) had followed proper money management
5) had been on the right side of the market
6) add here if you have more reasons
Well, actually reason 5) would not have caused Barings' collpase if reasons 1 thro
4 were in place. Cutting loss is one of the good habits of a trader.
This is a screen shot of the spot Nikkei 225. If you look at the weekly or monthly
chart, this part is just a small ripple in the overall chart. So you can see how much
of over-trading was done to cause Barings' collapse.
The period that broke the bank was the early part of 1995 and Leeson was long
the Nikkei through options. Now, look at these facts:
1) the Turtle system signaled a sell on 23Jan1995 on the FailSafe rule
2) the Turtle initial money stop was never hit
3) the Turtle trailing exit stop was hit 2 months later on 29Mar1995
4) the Turtle trading system returned a profit for short Nikkei during this period
5) Barings collapsed due to losses suffered for long Nikkei during this period