As of 2005-03-15:

Total Outstanding : 80 mil (100%)
Top 20 Shareholders : 55.8 mil (69.8%)

Current Warrant Price : $0.01
Exercise Price : S$ 0.15
Underlying Stock Price : $0.14 (2005-06-17)
Conversion Ratio : 1 share(s) : 1 warrant(s)

Just a 2 cent push in stock price would make the warrant in-the-money, and help the top 20 shareholders (not to mention those small public investors) having their warrants turn worthless.

On the other hand, of course they can convert into mother share on higher price premium.

With less than 4 months left before the warrants turn worthless, we could see a sudden pickup in interest over last few weeks on both mother share as well as warrant share (where they were hardly traded over last 8mths...)

Will this turn out to be a "Dead Cat Jump"? We have seen previous examples of F&N wts, Parkway wts & L&M wts etc doing a "rush-up" in the past before they turn worthless in the past.

So, will there be a repeat history with the mild activities carry on so far over the last few weeks? I dun know.. till it happen.. jus a guess :rolleyes:

Finally seeing a bigger quantity on the queue-up ;)
Could it be a trick? I still dun know ... <_<

Yesterday a total volume of 850lots at 0.5c , and now we have 1000lots rite at the beginning of 9am :P

Keep watching, thou' it may be end up nothing happen :unsure:

Haha.. :lol: finally we see a real done on $0.145

GanBaDe! :P

And now, someone is willing to take on the baby at $0.01 :o
Well.. definitely not me :P

Jia You! Jia You!

And Now!! After several weeks of side-way "delay" (perhaps we can name it as a Flag pattern), the mother share finally power up again.

From just below the warrant strike price of $0.15 , it has finally move above this mark and its warrant is now worth 1.5c theoritically (base on current price of $0.165 at time 0945 as of today)

Arggh... :angry: yet pple are still throwing to buyers of 0.5c !! :o

Bo Li You leh...

Btw, from end 2003 of a potential double-bottom, it has now turn out to be a potential triple-bottom. Will I be tricked again ? :(

And Now!! Penguin is trading at $0.175 , that means its warrants is worth $(0.175 - 0.15) = $0.025

Yet, this baby was still traded at $0.01 , a deep discount. Err.. wat happen huh??? :blink:

Somemore, more than 2000lots willing to give in at $0.01 even if its worth $0.025 <_<

Oh my God!

I think this is a situation where arbitrage costs may not make it worthwhile.

In arbitrage you basically do two (or more) trades that would result in you position
neutral. In this case, you buy the warrant at $0.01, subscribe for the shares
immediately for a total of more than $0.16 ($0.01 + $0.15 + comm) but before
you get your hands on the shares from the company you would have to find them
now in the open market or borrow them from someone and sell it now at the
$0.17 bid to make less than $0.01 profit (after comm). But what is the total comm
cost of buying that warrant and borrowing the shares now? If it is $0.01 or close to
it then the trade is no good.

Arbitragers will not just buy the warrant, subscribe to shares and then hold them.
To them if the price of the share were to drop, theirs become a losing trade and
they don't want that. They take advantage of momentary price imbalance before
market price them back in line again.

There are 80,000,000 of this warrant out there and at this level and with little time
left they can still get back a residual $0.01 (less comm) if they dump now.

Thanks CSK,

Thou' frankly speaking, I din understand much.

If arbitragers were to go for this trade, it will be very troublesome for them. Since the profit margin could be low, it's not worth trying to do such arbitration. Am I right?

One thing I dun quite understand. As of last mentioned, out of the 80mil warrants, nearly 70% were held by Top 20 shareholders. At that time, my simple thinking is: the mother price is very close to excercise price with 4mths left and it will be "wasted" to let the warrant expired worthless (they lugi leh...)

And now with mother share gaining above exercise price (it maybe push by retailers, but I guess it's more like the big warrant holders), by right the warrant must go on par with the move (I admit that near-term expiry is a big concern).

And i dun find reason, they want to exercise these warrants given that quite a huge sum need to be forge out - more than $8mil for 55.8mil or 70% of the warrants

As of now, mother went as high as $0.185 and warrant manage ti hit $0.015 (only 1 single lot ...!!!) The disparity has further widen to 0.03c

So kek sim... cos I'm having 20lots at $0.01 but 10 more lots at $0.07 when I was "tricked" by a potential double-bottom previously :angry: :(

Hi Lion,

The top 20 shareholders can let let the warrants expire or they can subscribe for
the shares whichever decision they think benefit them. Rising warrant price is
unlikely to make a difference to them and it unlikely that the warrant would stage
a rally at this point. Time decay is already jumping off the cliff. I think you
understand this phrase.

Wounds have taught me that the "illusionary attractiveness" of looking for bottom
formation in stocks don't work. A lemon will stay a lemon for a very long time and
during this very long time, it will show many potential bottom formation. The
sucker pull here is that at very low prices, the potential is many multiple fold
returns on investment. But in the long run, you will see other stocks zooming
ahead while you are still waiting for that multiple return and then there is another
problem with attachment after having live with the stock for so long.

Looking for stocks already in strong position tend to be a better exercise
especially those that break into high from a continuation congestion. These tend to
be strong stocks. After rereading and rereading Livermore and Gann and trading
and programming the Turtle system I am even more convinced. The problem is
there are so many stocks how to find the correct ones.

Well known technical traders, like Larry Williams, Walter Bressert, John Hill, the
late Bruce Babcock Jr and many more, have programmers punch out codes to
research into various price behaviour patterns. Maybe this is a good traits to
follow.

You don't have to hire programmers. You can do your own. I have not done this
(although I can do it fairly easily in Visual Basic and TradeStation) but try an
exploration for stocks that are making new highs for the past number of bars and
also tell you how many bars. Will this produce a list of potential strong stocks for
further screening?

Some ideas sprang to mind when replying. I put my thoughts at the Historical & EOD Data Provider & Vendors thread:

http://s7.invisionfree.com/ChartistsUnited...dpost&p=2779006